Modeling and forecasting dynamic (or time-varying) covariance matrices has many important applications in finance, such as Markowitz portfolio selection. A popular tool to this end are multivariate GARCH models. Historically, such models did not perform well in large dimensions due to the...

This paper constructs a new estimator for large covariance matrices by drawing a bridge between the classic Stein (1975) estimator in finite samples and recent progress under large-dimensional asymptotics. The estimator keeps the eigenvectors of the sample covariance matrix and applies shrinkage...

Multivariate GARCH models do not perform well in large dimensions due to the so-called curse of dimensionality. The recent DCC-NL model of Engle et al. (2019) is able to overcome this curse via nonlinear shrinkage estimation of the unconditional correlation matrix. In this paper, we show how...

Markowitz portfolio selection is a cornerstone in finance, both in academia and in the industry. Most academic studies either ignore transaction costs or account for them in a way that is both unrealistic and suboptimal by (i) assuming transaction costs to be constant across stocks and (ii)...

This paper estimates the curvature of the Earth, defined as one over its radius, without using any physics. The orthodox model is that the Earth is nearly spherical with a curvature of Û/20, 000 km. By contrast, the heterodox flat-Earth model stipulates a curvature of zero. Abstracting from the...

This paper estimates the curvature of the Earth, defined as one over its radius, without relying on physical measurements. The orthodox model states that the Earth is (nearly) spherical with a curvature of π/20'000 km. By contrast, the heterodox flat-Earth model stipulates a curvature of zero....

Markowitz portfolio selection is a cornerstone in finance, in academia as well as in the industry. Most academic studies either ignore transaction costs or account for them in a way that is both unrealistic and suboptimal by (i) assuming transaction costs to be constant across stocks and (ii)...

Markowitz (1952) portfolio selection requires estimates of (i) the vector of expected returns and (ii) the covariance matrix of returns. Many proposals to address the first question exist already. This paper addresses the second question. We promote a new nonlinear shrinkage estimator of the...

This paper introduces a nonlinear shrinkage estimator of the covariance matrix that does not require recovering the population eigenvalues first. We estimate the sample spectral density and its Hilbert transform directly by smoothing the sample eigenvalues with a variable-bandwidth kernel....

Democracy is defined by two core tenets: voice and pluralism. Within these constraints, a wide variety of regime types can be designed. We show that the only new, untested form of democracy is when every citizen is governed by the political party of his/her choice. Multiple full-edged...