Article introduces the notion of information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the economic variables in the nonlinear dynamic economic system for the first time, and presents an original research on the Ledenyov theory on the information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the...

The Value-at-Risk (VAR) measurements are widely applied to estimate exposure to market risks. The traditional approaches to VAR computations - the variance-covariance method, historical simulation, Monte Carlo simulation, and stress-testing - do not provide satisfactory evaluation of possible...

In this paper, we introduce a new approach for volatility modeling in discrete and continuous time.

The Lucas critique has been largely ignored in the marketing literature. We present a number of conditions under which the critique is most likely to (also) apply in marketing settings. Next, we provide some perspectives on how to diagnose and accommodate the Lucas critique, and identify various...

Economic Summary of 2005: Results of Econometric Analysis

This study exposes the specious quality of ‘endogeneity bias'. It reviews how conceptualisation of the bias has evolved to embrace all major econometric problems, despite extensive lack of hard evidence. It reveals the crux of the bias – a priori rejection, as conditionally invalid, of...

Mathematical molding disappeared in the changeover from methods to specify causal mechanisms of business cycles to methods to identify economic structures, that is, invariant relationships underlying the workings of an economy. Mathematical molding could fulfill its role in modeling business...

This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general; and these concepts are then applied to...