We use a Bivariate VAR model to model and predict the joint evolution of short term and long term interest rates. We introduce a GARCH effect on the innovations of the model in order to account for the changing vlatility of the series. We test the cointegration of the two interest rates, which...

A new model for the analysis of durations, the stochastic conditional dusration (SCD) model is introduced. This model is based on the assumption that the durations are generated by a latent stochastic factor that follows a first order autoregressive process. The lattent factor is perturbed...