The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of judgement. While previously judgement was thought to be the enemy of accuracy, today judgement is recognised as an...

Scenario planning can be a useful and attractive tool in strategic management. In a rapidly changing environment it can avoid the pitfalls of more traditional methods. Moreover, it provides a means of addressing uncertainty without recourse to the use of subjective probabilities, which can...

Goodwin defines hindsight bias and gives examples, examines its psychological basis, shows how it may interfere with the forecasting process, and suggests ways it might be at least partly overcome. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010

Goodwin comments on the drawbacks and problems involved in using off-the-peg error metrics and cites studies by several recent researchers on the accuracy and effectiveness of these metrics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of...

Many of us make judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts. But do these improve accuracy? Paul Goodwin explains when you should avoid the temptation to adjust and shows how the accuracy of your interventions can be improved. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

New to Foresight with this issue is the column Hot New Research, written by Paul Goodwin. In each issue, Paul will summarize several new articles that address issues of importance to the forecasting practitioner. The focus for this initial column is on forecasting performance in organizations,...

Paul discusses several key advantages to using CPFR, as Seifert explains the system. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

In his Hot New Research Column, Paul Goodwin discusses three recent studies on the effectiveness of traditional tools for new product forecasting: consumer intentions surveys, S curves, and conjoint analysis of the basis of customer preferences. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Paul Goodwin’s latest Hot New Research Column is very appropriate for the summer season. He reports on a recent paper by Haiyan Song and Gang Li, who reviewed research into tourism forecasting published in 121 articles since 2000. Paul also refers to another recently published paper by Sedat...