Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a computerized forecasting system to produce initial forecasts and the subsequent judgmental adjustment of these...

Restrictiveness and guidance have been proposed as methods for improving the performance of users of support systems. In many companies computerized support systems are used in demand forecasting enabling interventions based on management judgment to be applied to statistical forecasts. However,...

In Foresight’s Hot New Research Section, Goodwin comments on a recent article by Jerker Denrell and Christine Fang, published in Management Science, in which the authors warn against trusting intuition while overlooking the underlying rate. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Goodwin covers the pros and cons of complexity in advanced forecasting methods and warns that recommendations based on them should be supported by strong evidence of reliability. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011