This paper concludes that a market for state-contingent claims (UK horserace betting) displays evidence of pervasive, but heterogeneous forms of, inefficiency, in significant contrast to earlier investigations. Using hitherto unavailable data, comparison of notional returns implicit in parallel...

The purpose of this paper is to present an application of a cach flow-based Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA) to equity valuation. The cach flow-based Contingent Claims Analysis is used to extend a traditional CCA toproblems with incomplete capital markets, overreacted markets of situations where...

A committee is choosing from two alternatives. If required supermajority is not reached, voting is repeated indefinitely, although there is a cost of delay. Under suitable assumptions the equilibrium analysis provides a sharp prediction. The result can be interpreted as a generalization of the...

For testing lack of correlation against spatial autoregressive alternatives, Lagrange multiplier tests enjoy their usual computational advantages, but the (X2) first-order asymptotic approximation to critical values can be poor in small samples. We develop refined tests for lack of spatial error...

This note explains the process of public opinion formation via a locally interactive, space-time analysis. The model we use is a special case of the general framework for modelling social interaction proposed in Blume and Durlauf (2001). In the reduced form of the model we study how each...

Despite the fact that it is not correct to speak of Bartlett corrections in the case of non-stationary time series, this paper shows that a Bartlett-type correction to the likelihood ratio test for a unit root can be an effective tool in order to control size distortions. Using well-known...