Expectations about future housing prices are arguably an important determinant of actual housing prices, and an important input in decisions on whether and how to transact in the housing market. Using novel micro-level survey data on Swedish households, we analyse households' expectations of...

In this paper, we analysed the heavy-tailed behaviour in the dynamics of housing-price returns in the United States. We investigated the sources of heavy tails by estimating autoregressive models in which innovations can be subject to GARCH effects and/or non-Gaussianity. Using monthly data from...

In this paper, we analyse Okun's law - a relation between the change in the unemployment rate and GDP growth - using data from Australia, the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States. More specifically, we assess the relevance of non-Gaussianity when modelling the relation. This is...

In this paper, we estimate trend inflation in Sweden using an unobserved components stochastic volatility model. Using data from 1995Q4 to 2021Q4 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well-anchored during the period - although in general at a level below the...

Arbetstagarorganisationernas förväntningar på lönetillväxten ligger systematiskt högre än arbetsgivarorganisationernas i den så kallade Prospera-enkäten. I denna artikel analyseras dessa skillnader ekonometriskt. Genom att beakta respondenternas förväntningar rörande inflation och...

Survey data indicate that a relatively large share of households is ill-informed about the rate of inflation in the economy, with perceived and expected rates of inflation deviating substantially from official measures. Using Swedish micro-level data, we find that such inflation illiteracy is...

In this paper, we investigate whether survey measures of inflation expec-tations in Sweden Granger cause Swedish CPI-inflation. This is done by studying the precision of out-of-sample forecasts from Bayesian VAR models using a sample of quarterly data from 1996 to 2016. It is found that the...

In this paper, we investigate the impact of US uncertainty shocks on GDP growth in nine small open economies: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We compare the impact of two types of shocks: i) stock market volatility shocks and ii)...

Household expectations of future mortgage rates elicited over the last few years might appear unrealistically low. However, taking explicit account of the high persistence in interest rates, we find that Swedish households' implied long-term expectation of mortgage rates is around 4.7 percent....

Inflation did not fall as much as many economists expected as the Great Recession hit the US economy. One explanation suggested for this phenomenon is that the Phillips curve has become flatter. In this paper we investigate the stability of the US Phillips curve, employing Bayesian VARs to...