February 2001 <p> In this research, we develop an approach to the problem of identification and testing for bid-rigging in procurement auctions that tightly integrates economic theory and econometric practice. First, we introduce a general auction model with asymmetric bidders. We show how...</p>

April 1, 1998 <p> We develop the economist's concept of value as opportunity cost and discuss the ways in which decisions imply values through revealed preference. We distinguish between the ideas of incremental and total value and argue that only the former is of importance in practical...</p>

January 2000, Revised January 2001 <p> Collusion is a serious problem in many procurement auctions. In this research, I study a model of first price sealed bid procurement auctions with asymmetric bidders. I demonstrate that the equilibrium to the model is unique and describe three algorithms that...</p>

November 28, 1995 (First draft: June 1992) <p>This paper introduces the concept of Rational Belief Equilibrium (RBE) as a basis for a new theory of asset pricing. Rational Beliefs are probability beliefs about future economic variables which cannot be contradicted by the data generated by the...</p>

November 1997, Revised March 1998 (forthcoming, Quarterly Journal of Economics) <p> Why are many of China's successful rural enterprises publically owned by local communities? Using a set of provincial data, we find that the share of community public firms (Township-Village Enterprises, or TVEs)...</p>

August 2002 <p> Since the early 1980s, the smaller East Asian economies have experienced a synchronized business cycle. Before the Asian crisis of 1997-98, they pegged their exchange rates to the US dollar. Post crisis, we show that they have resumed dollar pegging on a high frequency, i.e.,...</p>

September 1998 <p> The major purpose of this lecture is to provide a conceptual framework for analyzing the mechanism of institutional evolution as "punctuated equilibrium." Section 1 introduces reasons why an equilibrium view of institutions may be appropriate. Section 2 introduces a simple...</p>

June 2000 <p> Japan's macroeconomic problem has yet to be properly diagnosed. Throughout the 1990s, policy makers could not decide on the proper macro economic measures to combat the country's severe economic slump. We propose a unified explanation, with deep historical roots, of why aggregate...</p>

Latest revision: September 1998. Previous versions appeared under the titles "On Proving Gains from Trade and Migration," and "On the Contrast between Policies toward Trade and Migration." <p> Would unrestricted "economic" migration enhance the potential gains from free trade? First, with free...</p>

November 2, 1999 <p> Inspired by facts from the private sector construction industry, we develop a model that explains many of the stylized facts about procurement contracts. The buyer in our model incurs a cost of providing a comprehensive design, and is faced with a trade-off between providing...</p>