Econometric modeling of the exchange rate saw successive progresses, the forecasts based on the ‘70s models having a …-month-ahead forecasts for July and August 2011 based on these models I found that the best predictions are those based on the model that is … compatible with the sense of Granger causality. The higher errors are those of the forecasts based on the AR(1) model. The …

adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain the bias using macroeconomic as well as sector and firm … explanatory variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi …-systematically to improve the forecasts of the analysts. …

explicitly in literature as a source of forecasts uncertainty. In this study based on data on U.S. GDP and its components in 1995 …-2010, we found that GDP one-step-ahead forecasts made by aggregating the components with variable weights, modeled using ARMA … procedure, have a higher accuracy than those with constant weights or the direct forecasts. Excepting the GDP forecasts obtained …

values and the forecasts provided by the European Commission, the National Commission for Prognosis and Dobrescu’s model over … predictions of these models and naive forecasts brought a statistically significant improvement for projections made by Romanian …

Economic forecasts are an essential building block for a budgetary anticipation in order to determine the budgetary … analyzed during the recent economic crisis and the IMF forecasts for this indicator outperformed those provided by Dobrescu …