This paper examines the extent to which speculation against the French franc in 1992-93 was motivated by the fundamentals or resulted from a sunspot phenomenon. We develop a model of currency crises which encompasses both hypotheses about the origin of speculation. The estimation shows that the...

We hypothesize that mutual thrifts often converted to stock ownership when the returns to conversion were predicted to be high. We show that excess returns on the initial public offerings (IPOs) of thrift conversions during the 1990s were predictable with publicly available data. The same...

This article describes how financial disruptions affect investment in a general equilibrium economy. I show that in a world with differentiated lenders, the most efficient will become financial intermediaries; their preeminence will nonetheless be limited by frictions with depositors. Because of...

Federico Echenique <BR> JEL#: C61, C62, C72, C73<BR> Keywords: Monotone comparative statics, supermodularity, strategic complements, learning, correspondence principle<BR> This paper formalizes the relation between comparative statics and the out-of-equilibrium explanation for how a system evolves after a...