This paper develops a restrictive procedure for evaluating economic policy decisions, by comparing actual economic history to a simulated history where a specific policy decision is replaced with a counterfactual, but credible, alternative. Our procedure is theoretically straightforward, but...

This article examines the risk and return characteristics of U.S. mutual funds. We employ an equilibrium version of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and a principal-components-based statistical technique to identify performance benchmarks. We also consider the Capital Asset Pricing Model...

This article develops an intertemporal, discrete-time, competitive equilibrium version of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) and explores the econometric implications of this model under various restrictions on investor preferences and on the dynamic behavior of dividends. We describe conditions...

This paper develops a theory and econometric method of portfolio performance measurement using a competitive equilibrium version of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We show that the Jensen coefficient and the appraisal ratio of Treynor and Black are theoretically compatible with the Arbitrage...

We analyze multivariate time series of daily high-low ranges of national equity market indices to measure intra-daily volatility dynamics across four continental European markets. We use a dynamic linear model of expected daily range which is a variant of Chou's conditional autoregressive range...

This paper examines the short-term dynamics, macroeconomic sensitivities, and longer-term trends in the variances and covariances of national equity market index daily returns for eleven countries in the Euro currency zone. We modify Colacito, Engle and Ghysel's Mixed Data Sampling Dynamic...

This paper develops a simple model of the gap between socially and privately optimal bank lending when a bank has an overhang of impaired loans, and analyzes government policies designed to close this gap. The impaired loans have risky cash flows but observable market values. A number of basic...