In this paper we develop a novel bank failure prediction approach that uses the output of a multiperiod logit model to assess banks' risk situations and then estimates a survival time model for the subset of at-risk (quot;illquot;) banks. Our empirical analysis reveals that this two-step...

This paper investigates some common determinants of default probability changes of individual firms using Standard amp; Poor's ratings database. We analyze and quantify the responses of hazard rates to changes in various economic variables, namely financial markets, business cycle and credit...

Despite a surge in the research efforts put into modelling credit risk during the past decade, few studies have incorporated the impact that macroeconomic conditions have on business defaults. In this paper, we estimate a duration model to explain the survival time to default for borrowers in...

The Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach for capital determination is one of the cornerstones in the proposed revision of the Basel Committee rules for bank regulation. We evaluate the IRB approach using historical business loan portfolio data from a major Swedish bank for the period 1994 to...

This note provides some evidence of the sensitivity of firm survival duration dependence to time aggregation, when durations are Weibull distributed. The results indicate that estimates of duration dependence are always positively biased: This bias increases with the width of time aggregation...

Revised version available under the title quot;Business and Financial Indicators: What are the Determinants of Default Probability Changes?quot;.This paper studies times-to-default of individual firms across risk classes. Using Standard amp; Poor's ratings database we investigate common drivers...

We assess whether two popular accounting-based measures, Altman's (1968) Z-Score and Ohlson's (1980) O-Score, effectively summarize publicly-available information about the probability of bankruptcy. We compare the relative information content of these Scores to a market-based measure of the...

This paper develops an optimal resolution triage strategy for a deposit-insurance regulator. The regulator seeks to maximize the market value of the deposit insurance enterprise, subject to budget, personal, bureaucratic, political, informational and legal restraints. Testable hypotheses are...

This study applies a competing risks approach and an event time dynamic estimation framework to identify the characteristics underlying different insolvency resolutions incurred to U.S. property-casualty insurers during 1998–2010. The estimated hazard model relates the time-varying probability...

This study aims to shed light on the debate concerning the choice between discrete-time and continuous-time hazard models in making bankruptcy or any binary prediction using interval censored data. Building on the theoretical suggestions from various disciplines, we empirically compare widely...