Previous literature has recognized the importance of regime changes in the calculation of ex-ante equity premia. However, the methodologies used to estimate equity premia only allow for very restrictive forms of regime transitions. This paper addresses the issue by postulating an evolving model...

A large body of research has stressed the importance of time varying risk premia in explaining asset pricing puzzles. We propose an empirical model for dividend growth, consumption growth and dividend-prices that is consistent with this literature and use it to estimate conditional and...

We present and estimate a Bayesian Hierarchical model of mutual fund returns. In our model, a fund's alpha reflects not only that fund's return history, but also information from other fund returns. Because parameters are estimated simultaneously for all funds, we can identify common residual...

The treatment of this article renders closed-form density approximation feasible for univariate continuous-time models. Implementation methodology depends directly on the parametric-form of the drift and the diffusion of the primitive process and not on its transformation to a unit-variance...

Firms headquartered in the same U.S. city experience positive comovement in their stock returns, a finding suggestive of local biases in equity trading activity (Pirinsky and Wang, Journal of Finance, 2006). We investigate the robustness of this finding with respect to additional equity pricing...

This paper analyses the effects of the maturities of credit-enhanced debt contracts on the value of an insurer's loan guarantee portfolios. We propose a contingent-claims model, that not only includes important features such as coupon payments and absolute priority violations, but also allows...

This paper compares the efficiency of traditional and stochastic interest rate risk measures under two distinct interest rate term structure frameworks: the Nelson-Siegel specification and an HJM consistent parametrization, as proposed by Bjork and Christensen(1999). Empirical analysis suggests...

Campbell and Shiller average 10 years of real S&P 500 earnings to construct its Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE, which they then use to forecast its future 10-year returns. In essence, Campbell and Shiller kill two birds with one large stone - they use the 10-year average to reduce noise...

We question the appropriateness of using time-invariant indices as benchmarks and propose a regime-switching methodology to identify the time-varying de facto benchmarks from a pool of the market-based indices, with or without a risk-free asset. We highlight the benchmark mismatch phenomenon and...

This paper provides a systematic investigation of the relative performance between the two mainstream portfolio optimisation methods: mean-variance and mean-Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) from both theoretical and practical perspectives. Using portfolios representing the entire US stock...