Se analizan los efectos de los movimientos de las tasas de intervención del Banco de la República en la estructura a plazo. La evidencia sugiere que, en frecuencia diaria, las reacciones son imperceptibles. Sin embargo, con datos en frecuencia semanal, la evidencia muestra un efecto...

A nonlinear smooth transition regression(STR) model of the demand for narrow money in Colombia is specified using monthly data for cash, prices, the scale variable (industrial GDP), the interest rate and the rate of depreciation, within the single equation framework allowed by the data. In...

In this paper we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium fiscal model for the Colombian economy. The model has three main components: the existence of non-Ricardian households, price and wage rigidities, and a fiscal authority that finances government spending partly with public debt....

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to forecast and to advice monetary policy authorities in Colombia. The model is called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON). In companion documents we present...

This paper measures inflation persistence in Colombia for the period 1990-2010 and estimates the implied speed at which agents learn about the central bank’s inflation target. We estimate Erceg and Levin’s (2003) imperfect credibility model using Bayesian techniques and compare the posterior...

This paper contains a nonlinear, nonstationary autoregressive model whose intercept changes deterministically over time. The intercept is a flexible function of time, and its construction bears some resemblance to neural network models. A modelling technique, modified from one for single...

In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology to determine the existence of credit booms, which is a complex and crucial issue for policymakers. In particular, we exploit the Mendoza and Terrones (2008)’s idea that macroeconomic aggregates other than the credit growth rate contain...

In this paper two new measures of the Colombian output gap and the real neutral interest rate are proposed. Instead of relying only on statistical filters, the proposed measures use semi-structural New-Keynesian models, adapted for a small open economy. The output gap measures presented are in...

En este documento se utiliza la metodología FAVAR (factor augmented VAR) para evaluar el impacto de variaciones no esperadas en cuatro variables internacionales: las tasas de interés de corto plazo, el riesgo, el precio real del petróleo, el café y el carbón, y la actividad económica...