We propose a novel methodology for forecasting chaotic systems which is based on the nearest-neighbor predictor and improves upon it by incorporating local Lyapunov exponents to correct for its inevitable bias. Using simulated data, we show that gains in prediction accuracy can be substantial....

Lors du trimestre d’été 2004, une quarantaine d’étudiants du programme de B.A.A. de HEC Montréal se sont inscrits à un cours de politique économique de deuxième année donné sous un format en ligne à distance. La formule pédagogique retenue qui ne nécessitait aucune présence en...

In this paper we model the market for a homogeneous good and examine the role of information in determining market outcomes. Unlike in Baye and Morgan (2001) where consumers can only learn about the prices charged by different firms by subscribing to an information intermediary’s service, we...

In this paper, we estimate returns to classroom and on-the-job firm-sponsored training in terms of value-added per worker using longitudinal linked employee-employer Canadian data from 1999 to 2006. We estimate a standard production function controlling for endogenous training decisions because...

We study the informational role of prices in a stochastic environment. We provide a closed-form solution of the monopoly problem when the price imperfectly signals quality to the uninformed buyers. We then study the effect of noise on output, market price, information flows, and expected...

We present a diagrammatic and step-by-step analysis of price signaling quality. Because quality is a continuum on the real positive line, out-of-equilibrium beliefs need not be specified, i.e., every positive price is a positive outcome in equilibrium. We first study the behavior of the monopoly...

We study how learning affects an uninformed monopolist's supply and investment decisions under multiplicative uncertainty in demand. The monopolist is uninformed because it does not know one of the parameters defining the distribution of the random demand. Observing prices reveals this...

The Enviroclub initiative was developed by three federal government agencies—Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions, Environment Canada and the National Research Council Canada—and launched in 2001 to assist small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in improving their profitability...

Most natural commons are subject to discontinuities and threshold effects, so their gradual depletion may result in a sudden irreversible loss of the associated ecological services. Yet, it is often impossible to locate these thresholds with certainty. We analyze this context using a variant of...