shown to be specific for commodity and market. A forecasting comparison on the basis of the identified models suggests that …

. While the forecasting error of the combined forecast tends to be systematically smaller than that of the individual model …

underwriters and issuing firms in the Japanese corporate bond market, stochastic life table forecasting: a time-simultaneous fan …

We run a real exchange rate forecasting "horse race", which highlights that two principles hold. First, forecasts … real exchange rate forecasting. However, it fails to forecast nominal exchange rates better than the random walk. We find …

small set of macroeconomic fundamentals being relevant for forecasting. …

reversion and assume that relative prices are unchanged. Direct forecasting or panel data techniques are better than the random …

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro … model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine … forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the one-month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to overlap …