This paper uses Canadian input-output and census data from 1961, 1971 and 1981 to decompose employment changes during each decade into nine sources. The goals are to identify: the main sources of growth in aggregate employment; factors which facilitated the more rapid growth of employment in the...

This paper analyses a stochastic international growth model with money and country-specific forcing processes for productivity and money growth rates. Monies are required, owing to cash-in-advance constraints for consumption goods, but the liquidity constraints need not be binding for all...

This paper computes parametric estimates of a time-varying risk premium model and compares the one-step-ahead forecasts implied by that model with those given by a nonparametric kernel estimator of the conditional mean function. The conditioning information used for the nonparametric analysis is...

Weekly data for foreign currency futures prices are examined for evidence of risk premiums. Covariance risks are measured with respect to the excess returns from benchmark portfolios for consumption and wealth. When the parameters representing the prices of the covariance risks are held...

We investigate covariation of payoffs from spot and futures positions in foreign currency markets. The weights in a hedged position are determined by the prices of futures and spot contracts and by foreign and domestic interest rates. Evaluating this hedged position using an intertemporal...

Hamilton's nonlinear filter is extended to allow state transitions to be duration dependent. Restrictions are imposed on the state transition matrix associated with a tau-order Markov system such that the corresponding first-order conditional transition probabilities are functions of both the...

Many finance questions require the predictive distribution of returns. We propose a bivariate model of returns and realized volatility (RV), and explore which features of that time-series model contribute to superior density forecasts over horizons of 1 to 60 days out of sample. This term...

The phrase 'equity premium puzzle' refers to the apparent inability of the standard asset-pricing paradigm to explain the average size of the equity premium in US data. In order to describe this failure it is useful to outline the essential features of the basic intertemporal equilibrium model...

We examine the form of heteroskedasticity in Deutsche Mark futures price data and compare different specifications of the particular way that the variance is changing over time. The martingale hypothesis is tested with daily and weekly rates of change of futures prices for the Deutsche Mark and...

The purpose of this paper is to carry out a specification analysis of a test relation for the unbiasedness hypothesis using thirty-day forward foreign exchange data from France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and West Germany. The results indicate that econometric problems do exist for each...