Hamilton's (1989) nonlinear Markovian filter is extend to allow state transitions to be duration dependent. Restrictions are imposed on the state transition matrix associated with a T-order Markov system such that the corresponding first-order conditional transition probabilities are functions...

Due to its non-storable nature, electricity is a commodity with probably the most volatile spot prices, exemplified by occasional spikes. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models have to incorporate these characteristics, and the spikes in particular. We investigate the nature...

We present a general methodology to model spikes in deregulated electricity markets using excitable dynamics in a multi-regime switching approach. In particular, we propose a two-regime switching model and a three-regime switching model in which the spikes phenomenon is described by a...

Stochastic models of electricity prices have been used extensively during the last few years to describe prices fluctuations in deregulated power markets. Regime-switching models seem good candidates to capture the main features of electricity prices dynamics as the mean-reversion property as...

Due to its non-storable nature, electricity is a commodity with probably the most volatile spot prices, exemplified by occasional spikes. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models have to incorporate these characteristics, and the spikes in particular. We investigate the nature...

Due to its non-storable nature, electricity is a commodity with probably the most volatile spot prices, exemplified by occasional spikes. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models have to incorporate these characteristics, and the spikes in particular. We investigate the nature...

Due to its non-storable nature, electricity is a commodity with probably the most volatile spot prices, exemplified by occasional spikes. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models have to incorporate these characteristics, and the spikes in particular. We investigate the nature...

Regime-switching models seem to well capture the main features of power prices behavior in deregulated markets. In a recent paper, we have proposed an equilibrium methodology to derive electricity prices dynamics from the interplay between supply and demand in a stochastic environment. In...

Japan’s long-lasting current account surplus as well as Germany’s temporary surplus during the 1980s are the two largest current account surpluses the world has witnessed. Remarkably, net exports were rising in both countries despite the large overall appreciation of the Japanese yen and the...

The intra-distributional mobility of German income dynamics is analysed using GSOEP. Transition probabilities are found to be time-varying. The tested models comprise various mixed Markov chains in discrete time and a non-stationary mover-stayer model is proposed. In order to explain the...