We use the inflation premium—the difference between nominal and real interest rates—as a proxy for expected inflation in the context of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Using data from inflation-indexed and nominal bonds we estimate a forward-looking Phillips curve for the United Kingdom...

Uncertainty about the precise quantitative effect of policy is endemic in economics. In a classic paper, Brainard showed that in the face of multiplier uncertainty in a static model that optimal policy is relatively conservative. I extend this work to a dynamic model and show in general that...