This paper investigates the role of inflation risk in a model of the price dividend ratio, combining a dynamic Gordon model specification with the inflation-augmented capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The model is estimated for the Euro Area and U.S. and tested against traditional models. For...

This note examines the impact of interest rate and money shocks on Euro Area and U.S. financial markets. More specifically, a dynamic Gordon model is developed for stock and bond returns, which allows for a decomposition in fundamental factors. It is found that the impact of official interest...

It is commonly agreed that the term spread and stock returns are useful in predicting recessions. We extend these empirical findings by examining interest rate and stock market volatility as additional recession indicators. Both risk-return analysis and the theory of investment under uncertainty...

It is commonly agreed that the term spread and stock returns are useful in predicting recessions. We investigate whether interest rate

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950-2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household...