Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...

This paper studies the ability of external imbalances to indicate subsequent exchange rate returns. We propose a simple twist of the Gourinchas and Rey (2007) approximation to the intertemporal budget constraint which is valid for countries that are net creditors (or net debtors) consistently...

Many currencies, especially those of countries with negative net foreign assets, tend to depreciate during times of financial turbulence. Using a panel of 26 currencies over the period 1/1997 - 6/2016, I show that the composition of net foreign assets matter for the exchange rate sensitivity to...

Many currencies, especially those of countries with negative net foreign assets, tend to depreciate during times of financial turbulence. Using a panel of 26 currencies over the period 1/1997 - 6/2016, I show that the composition of net foreign assets matter for the exchange rate sensitivity to...

This paper analyzes the external solvency of a group of 23 OECD countries for the period 1970-2012 The empirical strategy adopted underlines the increasing importance of the ?nancial channel for the external adjustment as proposed in Gourinchas and Rey (2007). We unify the traditional approaches...

This paper analyzes the external solvency of a group of 23 OECD countries for the period 1970–2012. The empirical strategy adopted underlines the increasing importance of the financial channel for the external adjustment as proposed in Gourinchas and Rey (2007). We unify the traditional...

The forward premium puzzle (FPP) is the negative correlation between the forward premium and the realized exchange rate return at maturities of a month and beyond. Some recent evidence shows that at maturities of multiple years and at the highest intra day frequency the correlation is positive...