This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks from the US to the euro-area using a two-country structural VAR with no exogeneity assumption. The analysis reveals the following results. First, in response to an unexpected increase in the Federal funds rate, the euro immediately...

Survey-based long-term inflation in the euro area reached historically low levels at the end of 2019, pointing to their disanchoring. A structural VAR analysis shows that the decline in long-term expectations exerted a downward pressure on inflation during the 2013-14 disinflation and then in...

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below target thereafter. This paper employs a Bayesian VAR to quantify the contribution of a set of structural shocks, identified by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic...

Nominal and real interest rates in advanced economies have been decreasing since the mid-1980s and reached historical low levels in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Understanding why interest rates have fallen is essential for both monetary policy and financial stability. This paper...

This paper provides evidence of de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area based on both time series and panel methods and data from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. Long-term inflation expectations recorded two sharp and permanent declines: the first after the...