Survey-based long-term inflation in the euro area reached historically low levels at the end of 2019, pointing to their disanchoring. A structural VAR analysis shows that the decline in long-term expectations exerted a downward pressure on inflation during the 2013-14 disinflation and then in...

Long-term inflation expectations in the euro area reached historically low levels at the end of 2019, suggesting a possible de-anchoring from the European Central Bank’s “below, but close to, 2 per cent” inflation aim. The decline in long-term inflation expectations exerted a downward...

This paper assesses the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area, a key issue from a monetary policy perspective, using a range of measures of inflation expectations and methods. The overall reading of the evidence is that long-term inflation expectations in the euro area...

The contribution of energy shocks to euro-area inflation in 2022 is larger than that of shocks to aggregate and supply, and to monetary policy. Had the ECB tightened monetary policy more than implied by the actual policy rate to counter the energy shocks, growth and inflation would have been...