In the first part of this paper I use a small macroeconomic model to examine the causes of the appreciation of sterling during 1979-81. Oil takes about half of the blame. Contractionary monetary policies alone do not seem sufficient to explain the rest, but when coupled with adverse supply-side...

This note re-examines the results of tests of the hypothesis that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased and efficient predictor of the future spot exchange rate. As an alternative hypothesis we posit the existence of a time-varying risk premium. We show that it is possible to place a...

This paper assesses the costs and benefits of monetary union in Europe. It is argued that neither the costs nor the benefits are in principle likely to be as great as critics and proponents respectively have suggested. Fiscal issues are, it is argued, likely to be far more significant. Fiscal...

This paper examines the effects of tax cuts in a multi-country world where both labour supply and capital formation are endogenous and taxes are distortionary. We highlight four channels through which tax cuts affect interest rates and the economy in general: (i) an increase in the supply of...

The paper contains a thorough review of explanations for the weak British growth performance of the 1950s through the 1970s and an assessment of the long-term implications of the 1980s attempt to escape from relative decline. The analysis draws on recent work in growth theory and places...

We argue that the 1970s were characterized by attempts to maintain a cooperative, low unemployment equilibrium in the face of considerable union power, through use of incomes policies and neo-corporatist machinery. The 1980s saw a shift away from this, towards direct measures to limit union...

In the first part of the paper we outline a method for estimating a class of models in which news or surprises appear and expectations are formed rationally. The method is an extension of the errors-in-variables method of McCallum and Wickens. As a by-product some of Pagan's results on the...