The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are...

Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon...

This supplement is published once a year as a complement to the Short- Term Energy Outlook, Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current...

A robust methodology for estimating the value of service reliability improvements is presented. Although econometric models for estimating value of service (interruption costs) have been established and widely accepted, analysts often resort to applying relatively crude interruption cost...

This paper examines the relative performance of three different systems of forecasting movements in macro building prices. The three systems analysed are (1) the Building Cost Information Service system, (2) the Davis, Langdon & Everest system, and (3) Akintoye and Skitmore's reduced-form...

One critical factor in open pit mining projects is the estimation of the recoverable reserves. The reason for this is that at the valuation stage there is a lack of information about future metal prices and production costs. Consequently, the estimation of the recoverable reserves needs to be...

Dynamic factor models (DFM) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels of macroeconomic and financial data can be captured by relatively few common...

I study the evolution of aggregate volatility in the US during the postwar period by assessing the relative role played by financial shocks, technological progress, and changes in the financial system. Balance-sheet variables of firms have been characterized by greater volatility since the early...

With 2.4 million employees, the military is America's largest employer. Individuals make the military labor force participation decision within the context of other labor market opportunities, which may vary by race and over the business cycle. This paper develops and estimates a dynamic...

In the first chapter, I develop and estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model with imperfectly informed firms in the sense of Woodford (2002). The model has two aggregate shocks: a monetary policy shock and a technology shock. Firms observe idiosyncratic noisy signals about these shocks and...