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Does capital markets uncertainty affect the business cycle? We find that financial volatility predicts 30% of post-war economic activity in the United States, and that during the Great Moderation, aggregate stock market volatility explains, alone, up to 55% of real growth. In out-of-sample...
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Volatilities implied from interest rate swaptions are used to assess the size and the sign of the compensation for volatility risk, for dollar, euro and pound rates at a daily frequency, between October 1998 and August 2006. The measurement of the volatility risk premium rests on a simple model...
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Carry trades - a popular strategy in the foreign exchange market - are long positions in high interest rate currencies financed by borrowing low interest rate currencies. Such positions are held as long as i) there remains a significant interest rate differential between the two currency groups...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135801
From a financial standpoint, the mechanics of the carry trade has been recently examined in Brunnermeier et al. (2009). They showed that shocks to interest rate differentials lead to carry trade activity and to significant reactions in the bilateral exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118369
Among the many controversial variables in finance, risk premia stand prominent for their lack of observability. Measuring premia as the difference between realized returns on risky and risk-free assets has not led to unanimous conclusions about their size, which dramatically depends upon the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012741546
Relying on a perspective borrowed from monetary policy announcements and introducing an econometric twist in the traditional event study analysis, we doc- ument the existence of an event risk transfer , namely a significant credit risk transmission from the sovereign to the corporate sector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012429615
Aim of this article is to judge the empirical performance of Arch as diffusion approximations to models of the short-term rate with stochastic volatility and as filters of the unobserved volatility. We show that the estimation of the continuous time scheme to which a discrete time Arch model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012727845