This paper applies an extended and generalised version of the recursive modelling strategy developed in Pesaran and Timmermann (1995) to the UK stock market. The focus of the analysis is to simulate investors' search in "real time" for a model that can forecast stock returns. We find evidence of...

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the existence of structural breaks in the fundamentals process underlying US stock prices and develops an asset pricing model which considers the possibility of such breaks. Three break points are identified: The Great Depression, World War II, and...

We consider performance measurement and evaluation for managed funds. Similarities and differences−both in econometric practice and in interpretation of outcomes of empirical tests−between performance measurement and conventional asset pricing models are analyzed. We also discuss how...

This paper provides a new approach to forecasting time series that are subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks occurring over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of...