This paper investigates the international asset allocation effects of time-variations in higher-order moments of stock returns such as skewness and kurtosis. In the context of a four-moment International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) specification that relates stock returns in five regions...

Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...

Recent empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data. Furthermore, the extent of such disagreement varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation...

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...

The contingency table literature on tests for dependence among discrete multi-category variables is extensive. Existing tests assume, however, that draws are independent, and there are no tests that account for serial dependencies−a problem that is particularly important in economics and...

This article presents empirical evidence on the existence of structural breaks in the fundamentals process underlying U.S. stock prices. I develop an asset-pricing model that represents breaks in the context of a Markov switching process with an expanding set of nonrecurring states. Different...

Empirical studies using survey data on expectations have frequently observed that forecasts are biased and have concluded that agents are not rational. We establish that existing rationality tests are not robust to even small deviations from symmetric loss and hence have little ability to tell...

Hoover and Perez?s results show that the general-to-specific approach performs well if the search for a linear and stable model specification is conducted in a local neighborhood around the truth. However, non-linearities, outliers, parameter instability and the absence of even approximate...