In the spring of 2000, two books predicted a substantial fall in the S&P500 Index. Robert Shiller's <I>Irrational Exuberance</I> found that, historically, a high price earnings ratio, with real earnings averaged over 10 years, accurately predicts a low real rate of return from investing in the S&P500...</i>

This paper is a short, non-technical exposition of the political economy of protection. It asks how do political forces operate to generate protection, and what determines the magnitude and form that protection takes.

Is John Bogle right that Vanguardís index and managed funds are comparable and by his example that investors should hold both? Each Vanguard managed fund produces the same return as the tracking basket of Vanguardís indexed funds plus a differential, a. If a, is positive the managed fund is...

Robert Crandall in the March 19, 1999 Wall Street Journal wrote, "On Wednesday the House passed one of the most blatantly protectionist pieces of legislation since the 1930s. Reacting to the anguished cries from the steel industry and its rapidly declining unionized workforce, the House voted to...

This paper discovers that a campaign contribution to a member of the U.S. House of Representatives by the National Education Association (the major teacher's union) in the 2000 election cycle reduces the probability that a Representative will vote for a pro-choice amendment to the "No Child Left...

Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about whether and how much the U.S. stock market is overvalued, leading some economic gurus to suggest that foreign markets may be good investments. We ask whether this is the case and apply the Gordon formula to predict future real rates of return on...

Each month, GMO publishes on the web its predictions of the real rate of return for various asset styles over the next seven years. Its web library also retains its quarterly predictions, dating back to the end of the second quarter of 2000. I ask whether these predictions are accurate. My...

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