Recent models of monetary policy have analyzed the desirability of di?erent optimal and ad hoc interest rules under the restrictive assumption that forecasts of the private sector and the central bank are homogenous. This paper studies the implications of heterogeneity in forecasting by the...

Conventional wisdom usually suggests that agents should use all the data they have to make the best possible prediction. In this paper, it is shown that agents may make better predictions by discarding old data if their model is mis-specified. The applicability of the results to some economic...

If a company's auditor believes that the company is likely to enter bankruptcy, the auditor is required to warn investors by giving a 'qualified' audit report. This paper investigates whether auditor switching can help explain why auditors frequently fail to warn about impending bankruptcy. The...

Standard practice in stated preference typically blurs the distinction between household and individual responses, but without a clear theoretical or empirical justification for this approach. To date there have been no empirical tests of whether values for say a two adult household elicited by...

Recent bargaining experiments demonstrated an impact of anonymity and incomplete information on subjects' behavior. This has rekindled the question whether “fair” behavior is inspired by regard for others or is explained by external forces. To test for the importance of external pressure we...

When an economy experiences crisis that reduces the level of human capital stock, such a change should be accompanied by a change in the investment level. Is this always the best thing to do? In an optimal growth model of human capital evolution this paper shows that cutting down investment...

We compare the treatment of Colombia in large cross-country conflict datasets with the information of the detailed micro dataset of Restrepo, Spagat and Vargas (2003). We find a general tendency of the big datasets to underestimate the magnitude of the Colombian conflict and to mischaracterize...

Inspired by the model of Kalai and Satterthwaite (1994), I define a class of abstract games which are proved to be dominance-solvable. I show moreover that, in the leading subclass of co-ordination games, they are solvable on the unique Pareto-dominant outcome.

This paper constructs a game-theoretic model of elections in alternative electoral systems with three or four candidates. Each electoral system specifies how the platforms of the candidates and their scores give rise to an outcome. When geometrical analysis shows that two outcomes can compete...

This paper introduces a non-cooperative game-theoretic model of sequential network formation, in which players propose links and demand payoffs. Payoff division is therefore endogenous. We show that if the value of networks satisfies size-monotonicity, then each and every equilibrium network is...