We state conditions for existence and uniqueness of equilibria in evolu- tionary models with an infinity of locally and globally interacting agents. Agents face repeated discrete choice problems. Their utility depends on the actions of some designated neighbors and the average choice throughout...

In illiquid markets, option traders may have an incentive to increase their portfolio value by using their impact on the dynamics of the underlying. We provide a mathematical framework within which to value derivatives under market impact in a multi-player framework by introducing strategic...

The dynamics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets is an important element of competitive power markets that were only established in the last decade. In electricity markets, the market microstructure does not allow for continuous trading, since operators require advance notice in...

This paper examines the role of currency and banking in the German financial crisis of 1931 for both Germany and the U.S. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find that monetary transmission through...

The relation between the ECB’s main refinancing (MRO) rates and the money market is key for the monetary transmission process in the euro area. This paper investigates how money market rates respond to the new information revealed by MRO auctions. Our results confirm a stabilizing level...

This paper studies the performance of nonparametric quantile regression as a tool to predict Value at Risk (VaR). The approach is flexible as it requires no assumptions on the form of return distributions. A monotonized double kernel local linear estimator is applied to estimate moderate (1%)...

The publication of a projected path of future policy decisions by central banks is a controversially debated method to improve monetary policy guidance. This paper suggests a new approach to evaluate the impact of the guidance strategy on the predictability of monetary policy. Using the example...

This paper develops a simple New Keynesian model incorporating a small time-varying probability that the economy is struck by a disaster in the future. The model's main prediction is that a small increase in the disaster probability causes a recession in the economy, specically due to limited...

The prices of wine is a key topic for market participants interested in valuing their stock, including dealers, restaurants or consumers who may be interested in optimizing their purchases. As a closely related issue, re-valuation is the need to regularly update the value of a stock. This need...

An efficient estimator is constructed for the quadratic covariation or integrated covolatility matrix of a multivariate continuous martingale based on noisy and non-synchronous observations under high-frequency asymptotics. Our approach relies on an asymptotically equivalent continuous-time...