The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3–4):263–271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1–25,...

We develop a method for finding optimal greenhouse gas reduction rates under ongoing uncertainty and re-evaluation of climate parameters over future decades. Uncertainty about climate change includes both overall climate sensitivity and the risk of extreme tipping point events. We incorporate...

The "social cost of carbon" (SCC) is the present value of the stream of future damages from one additional unit of carbon emissions in a particular year. This paper develops a rapid assessment model for the SCC. The model includes the essential ingredients for calculating the SCC at the global...

Pour évaluer les politiques climatiques dans un cadre coût-efficacité sous contraintes d'évolution du climat (amplitude du réchauffement et son rythme), nous avons développé RESPONSE_ ?, un modèle intégré de contrôle optimal. Nos résultats montrent que l'incertitude sur la...

We estimate the value of information (VOI) for three key parameters of climate integrated assessment models (IAMs): marginal damages at low temperature anomalies, marginal damages at high temperature anomalies, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Most empirical studies of climate damages have...

This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a "pure preference for current climate regime" and full cost-benefit...

This paper examines the fusion of conflicting and not independent expert opinion in the Transferable Belief Model. Regarding procedures that combine opinions symmetrically, when beliefs are bayesian the non-interactive disjunction works better than the non-interactive conjunction, cautious...

Common integrated assessment models produce the counterintuitive result that higher risk aversion does not lead to stronger near-term abatement. This paper re-examines this result with a DICE model that is fully coupled with a thermohaline circulation model. It also features Epstein-Zin utility...

Climate change involves uncertain probabilities of catastrophic risks, and very longterm consequences of current actions. Climate economics, therefore, is centrally concerned with the treatment of risk and time. Yet conventional assumptions about utility and optimal economic growth create a...

This paper analyses the policy relevance of the dominant uncertainties in our current scientific understanding of the terrestrial climate system, and provides further evidence for the need to radically transform - this century - our global infrastructure of energy supply, given the global...