Pour évaluer les politiques climatiques dans un cadre coût-efficacité sous contraintes d'évolution du climat (amplitude du réchauffement et son rythme), nous avons développé RESPONSE_ ?, un modèle intégré de contrôle optimal. Nos résultats montrent que l'incertitude sur la...

The "social cost of carbon" (SCC) is the present value of the stream of future damages from one additional unit of carbon emissions in a particular year. This paper develops a rapid assessment model for the SCC. The model includes the essential ingredients for calculating the SCC at the global...

Some recent research suggests that uncertainty about the response of the climate system to atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations can have a disproportionately large influence on benefits estimates for climate change policies, potentially even dominating the effect of the discount rate....

This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a "pure preference for current climate regime" and full cost-benefit...

We develop a method for finding optimal greenhouse gas reduction rates under ongoing uncertainty and re-evaluation of climate parameters over future decades. Uncertainty about climate change includes both overall climate sensitivity and the risk of extreme tipping point events. We incorporate...

This paper analyses the policy relevance of the dominant uncertainty in our current scientific understanding of the terrestrial climate system, and provides further evidence for the need to radically transform—this century—our global energy supply infrastructure, given the global average...

This paper analyses the policy relevance of the dominant uncertainties in our current scientific understanding of the terrestrial climate system, and provides further evidence for the need to radically transform - this century - our global infrastructure of energy supply, given the global...

We estimate the value of information (VOI) for three key parameters of climate integrated assessment models (IAMs): marginal damages at low temperature anomalies, marginal damages at high temperature anomalies, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Most empirical studies of climate damages have...

This paper examines the fusion of conflicting and not independent expert opinion in the Transferable Belief Model. Regarding procedures that combine opinions symmetrically, when beliefs are bayesian the non-interactive disjunction works better than the non-interactive conjunction, cautious...