An important disconnect in the news driven view of the business cycle formalized by Beaudry and Portier (2004), is the lack of agreement between different—VAR and DSGE—methodologies over the empirical plausibility of this view. We argue that this disconnect can be largely resolved once we...

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coe¢ cients to construct a …nancial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each …nancial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for...

Bank crises, by interrupting liquidity provision, have been viewed as resulting in welfare losses. In a model of banking with moral hazard, we show that second best bank contracts that improve on autarky ex ante require costly crises to occur with positive probability at the interim stage. When...

This paper studies the behavior of a central bank that seeks to conduct policy optimally while having imperfect credibility and harboring doubts about its model. Taking the Smets-Wouters model as the central banks approximating model, the papers main fi…ndings are as follows. First, a central...

Whats the role of unilateral measures in global climate change mitigation in a post-Durban, post 2012 global policy regime? We argue that under conditions of preference heterogeneity, unilateral emissions mitigation at a subnational level may exist even when a nation is unwilling to commit to...

We develop an empirical framework that links micro-liquidity, macro-liquidity and stock prices. We provide evidence of a strong link between macro-liquidity shocks and the returns of UK stock portfolios constructed on the basis of micro-liquidity measures between 1999- 2012. Specifically,...

We use firm level data to assess the role of exporting in the link between financial health and firm survival. The data are for the UK and France. We examine whether firms at different stages of export activity (starters, exiters, continuers, switchers) react differently to changes in financial...

An extensive economics and regional science literature has discussed the importance of social capital for economic growth and development. Yet, what social capital is and how it is formed are elusive issues, which require further investigation. Here, we refer to social capital in terms of...

This paper considers the role of human capital accumulation of agents differentiated by skill type in the joint determination of social mobility and the skill premium. Our approach allows us to evaluate the dynamic e¤ects of tax reforms and education spending policies on economic e¢ ciency as...

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant...