Classical asset allocation methods have assumed that the distribution of asset returns is smooth, well behaved with stable statistical moments over time. The distribution is assumed to have constant moments with e.g., Gaussian distribution that can be conveniently parameterised by the first two...

We examine in this paper a critical question in finance: the use of large nonlinear over-parametrized models or simpler models to forecast financial time series and the balance between underfitting and overfitting, the bias-variance trade-off, and the absolute performance in the test set. The...

The adjustment for the cedent's retained risk after excess-of-loss reinsurance with reinstatements is calculated. Therefore we need a multivariate aggregate claims distribution. This distribution is easily given by a multivariate extension of Panjer's recursion. Numerical examples show the...

The adjustment for the cedent's retained risk after excess-of-loss reinsurance with reinstatements is calculated. Therefore we need a multivariate aggregate claims distribution. This distribution is easily given by a multivariate extension of Panjer's recursion. Numerical examples show the...

This paper investigates the evolution of the (conditional) volatility of returns on three Scandinavian markets (Finland, Norway and Sweden) over the turbulent period of the past decade, namely the overlapping periods of financial liberalisation, drastically changing macroeconomic conditions and...

We provide a monotonic transformation of an initial diffusion with a level-dependent diffusion parameter that yields a second, deterministic parameter process. Altering the diffusion parameter while maintaining the original Brownian motion at the expense of the drift can be viewed as a...

Evidence of structural breaks in the historical return distribution raises concerns about averaging a long series to estimate the current equity premium. Data before a break are relevant if one believes that large shifts in the premium are unlikely or that the premium is associated, to some...

We study asset allocation when the conditional moments of returns are partly predictable.

This paper proposes a class of asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration models, which extends the ACD model of Engle and Russell (1997). The asymmetry consists of letting the duration process depend on the state of the price process in the beginning and at the end of the each duration. If...

This paper introduces the logarithmic autoregressive conditional duration model (log-ACD model). The logarithmic version allows for more flexibilitythan the ACD model of Engel and Russel (1995), when additional variables are included in the model. We apply the log-ACD model to bid/ask prices...