We analyse fifteen post-World War II US macroeconomic time series using a modified outlier identification procedure based on Tsay (1988a). "Large shocks" appear to be present in all the series we examined. Furthermore, there are three basic outlier patterns: (1) outliers seem to be associated...

In this paper, the authors consider a model in which there is discontinuous adjustment to a long-run equilibrium. Here, the equilibrium error follows a threshold autoregression that is mean-reverting outside a given range and has a unit root inside the range. The authors suggest a two-step...

This paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar gross national product (GNP), taps previously unused data sources, an d develops new estimates for the periods 1869-1908 and 1869-1928. Primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation,...

This article demonstrates the difficulty that traditional outlier detection methods, such as that of R. S. Tsay, have in identifying level shifts in time series. Initializing the outlier/level-shift search with an estimated autoregressive moving average model lowers the power of the level-shift...

The authors evaluate the ability of a simple real business cycle model to generate business cycles in the classical NBER sense of the term, where recessions are periods of absolute declines in economic activity. They use the 'phase' classification of Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell (1946)...

This paper examines the phenomenon of "Fed watching" within the context of a macroeconomic policy game. Following A. Cukierman and A. H. Meltzer's 1986 article, the policymaker's preferences are private information and noisy monetary control causes past observations of money growth to be a noisy...

Eight times a year, approximately two weeks before every FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic conditions in the twelve Federal Reserve districts. Called the Beige Book, this description relies primarily on surveys and anecdotal evidence gathered by the twelve...

This paper utilizes the generalized Fechner-Thurstone direct utility function to see if relative price changes in neighboring countries affect the preference structure of the host country. The authors analyze the case of Canada, Mexico, and the United States. They utilize the generalized...