Unlike the value at risk, the expected shortfall is a coherent measure of risk. In this paper, we discuss estimation of the expected shortfall of a random variable Yt with special reference to the case when auxiliary information is available in the form of a set of predictors Xt. We consider...

We analyze behaviour and motivations of a sample of about one thousand consumers purchasing “fair trade (FT) goods”, i. e. food and artisan goods which include socially responsible (SR) characteristics and a price premium for primary product producers with respect to equivalent non FT...

This paper presents a model where aggregate consumption depends on both the level of wealth and the age structure of population. The explicit consideration of an endogenous rate of time preference permits to analyze the important role of population ageing as a determinant of aggregate saving.

This paper focuses on two main issues. First, we find that, on average, households’ discount rates decline. This implies dynamically inconsistent preferences. Second, we calculate an indicator of the degree of dynamic inconsistency that may help us to understand how households overcome their...

We analyze the classical asset pricing model assuming non fully rational agents. Agents forecast future prices cum dividend through an adaptive learning rule. This assumption provides an explanation of some anomalies encountered in the empirical analysis of asset prices under full rationality:...

This paper studies the effects of incentive mechanisms and of the competitive environment on the interaction between schools and students, in a set-up where the students' educational attainment depends on their peer group, on their effort, and on the quality of the school's teaching. We show...

Why do dynamic inconsistencies in monetary policy exist? In this paper a traditional model without put inefficiencies is introduced, but monetary policy is allowed to be influenced by the various constituencies in the economy, that pressure Congress in turn to pressure the central bank to adopt...

This paper characterizes endogenous monetary policy when policymakers are uncertain about the extent to which movements in output and inflation are due to changes in potential output or to cyclical demand and cost shocks. We refer to this informational limitation as the "information problem"...

By assuming that a large share of investors (which we call fundamentalists) follows a fundamental approach to stock picking, we build a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and test on a sample of high-tech stocks whether the strong and the weak version of the model are supported by data from the US...

In this paper we show how trading rules can generate excess volatility in the exchange rate through repeated entry and exit of currency "bears" and "bulls". This is something of a caricature: but it allows us to show that official action can have self-ful.lling e¤ects as market composition...