The lack of trust in the maritime industry between all the industry organizations and regulators has created an inspection industry which is heavily controlled by oil majors in order to limit their liability. This report is an introductory part of a PhD project called "The Econometrics of...

We propose a discussion index model (Stock and Watson, 2002) to fore- cast electricity demand for one hour to one week ahead. The model is particularly useful as it captures complicated seasonal patterns in the data. The forecast performance of the proposed method is illustrated with a simulated...

We analyze five vintages of eighteen quarterly macroeconomic variables for the Netherlands and we focus on the degree of deterministic seasonality in these series. We document that the data show most such deterministic seasonality for their first release vintage and for the last available...

This paper reports on simulation results for the Wald test for ï¡1=ï¡2=0 in the regression model for the case ï« is known and for the case where ï« has to be estimated using nonlinear least squares (NLS). This last situation is not standard, and we therefore provide critical values for...

We examine if US inflation rates series can be characterized by a long-memory model, by a model with occasional level shifts or by a new model, which jointly captures the two features. Through simulations we show that this new model can be usefully applied in practice. For 23 inflation rate...

This paper puts forward a data collection method to measure weekly consumer confidence at the individual level. The data thus obtained allow to statistically analyze the dynamic correlation of such a consumer confidence indicator and to draw inference on transition rates, which is not possible...

Based on simple time series plots and periodic sample autocorrelations, we document that monthly river flow data display long memory, in addition to pronounced seasonality. In fact, it appears that the long memory characteristics vary with the season. To describe these two properties jointly, we...

Subjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new to develop product. The tau-equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability....

Pre-election polls can suffer from survey effects. For instance, individuals taking part in the poll may become more aware of the upcoming election so that they become more inclined to vote. Such effects cause biases in forecasted outcomes of elections. We propose a simple methodology that takes...

With the advent of advanced data collection techniques, there is an increased interest in using econometric models to support decisions in marketing. Due to the sometimes specific nature of variables in marketing, the discipline uses econometric models that are rarely, if ever, used elsewhere....