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The GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models are two competing, well-known and often used models to explain the … simple, strongly consistent decision rules to compare the ability of the GARCH and the SV model to fit the characteristic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272260
The GARCH model and the Stochastic Volatility [SV] model are competing but non-nested models to describe unobserved … volatility in asset returns. We propose a GARCH model with an additional error term, which can capture SV model properties, and … which can be used to test GARCH against SV. We discuss model representation, parameter estimation and a simple test for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731781
The GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models are two competing, well-known and often used models to explain the … simple, strongly consistent decision rules to compare the ability of the GARCH and the SV model to fit the characteristic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005008468
According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584161
Prepared for the Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol 2 This chapter reviews Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting with VAR models. Bayesian inference and, by extension, forecasting depends on numerical methods for simulating from the posterior distribution of the parameters and spe-...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654382
Inflation did not fall as much as many economists expected as the Great Recession hit the US economy. One explanation suggested for this phenomenon is that the Phillips curve has become flatter. In this paper we investigate the stability of the US Phillips curve, employing Bayesian VARs to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654433
In this paper we assess whether the relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy has been stable over time. Using quarterly US data from 1953Q1 to 2018Q2, we estimate Bayesian VAR models which allow for drifting parameters and/or stochastic volatility and conduct formal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654449
We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014331161
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009793512
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391631