This paper investigates the extent to which it is possible for speculative attacks to be predictable given information on economic fundamentals. A standard model of predictable attacks is extended to incorporate an optimizing monetary authority. It is shown that while incorporating a...

The topic of this paper is the problem of a singular disturbance covariance matrix in (seemingly unrelated) systems of linear regression equations. This singularity is considered as being caused by exact linear restrictions on the endogenous variables, adding-up to a predetermined aggregate. It...

Consumer demand for rail transportation has traditionally been analyzed by means of aggregate demand systems and disaggregate discrete choice models. It is remarkable however that no serious efforts have been made to develop a disaggregate structural demand model, which takes account of the fact...

Linear and Hodrick-Prescott detrending methods do not provide a good approximation of the business cycle when output contains a unit root. I use the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition to document the main patterns of US postwar business cycle when output and some other variables are...

In empirical studies of retirement decisions of the elderly, health is often found to have a large, if not dominant, effect. Depending on which health measures are used, these estimated effects may be biased estimates of the causal effect of health on the dependent variable(s).Research indicates...

Markets involve the exchange of information and products between buyers and sellers in marketplaces created by market organizers. This paper develops a theory to explain the differences in the size (number of participants) and diversity (range of products displayed) across these marketplaces. We...

In a model of a two-period exchange economy under uncertainty, we find an upper bound for the equilibrium risk-free interest rate when the expected aggregate endowment in the second period is no greater than the first-period aggregate endowment. We also find a lower bound when the agents'...

Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is widely applied in econometrics. In most cases, there is a vast array of population moments upon which to base estimation and so the researcher must decide which moments to use. Andrews (1999, Econometrica, 543-564) proposes a method for moment selection...

This paper describes a new test of a parametric model of a conditional mean function against a nonparametric alternative. The test adapts to the unknown smoothness of the alternative model and is uniformly consistent against alternatives whose distance from the parametric model converges to zero...

In this paper we take a "market-based" approach to examine whether increased expenditures improve perceived school quality and whether the current level of public school provision is inefficient. We find evidence that, on average, school districts are not wasting taxpayers' education dollars....