A limit theory for Wald tests of Granger causality in levels vector autoregressions (VAR's) and error correction models (ECM's) is developed, which allows for stochastic trends and cointegration. Earlier work is extended to the general case, thereby characterizing when these Wald tests are...

A limiting representation of the Bayesian data density is obtained and shown to be the same general exponential form for a wide class of likelihoods and prior distributions. An embedding theorem is given which shows how to embed the exponential density in a continuous time process. From the...

An asymptotic theory is developed for nonlinear regression with integrated processes. The models allow for nonlinear effects from unit root time series and therefore deal with the case of parametric nonlinear cointegration. The theory covers integrable and asymptotically homogeneous functions....

This paper utilizes asymptotic expansions of the Edgeworth type to investigate alternative forms of the Wald test of nonlinear restricti ons. Some formulae for the asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the Wald statistic are provided for a general case that should include most econometric...

This paper explores tests of the hypothesis that the tail thickness of a distribution is constant over time. Using Hill's conditional maximum likelihood estimator for the tail index of a distribution, tests of tail shape constancy are constructed that allow for an unknown breakpoint. The...

The authors' subject is estimation and inference concerning long-run economic equilibria in models with stochastic trends. An asymptotic theory is provided to analyze a menu of currently existing estimators of cointegrated systems. The authors study, in detail, the single-equation...