This paper examines different multivariate models to evaluate what are the main determinants when doing VaR forecasts … and the time sample used for VaR backtesting. The calculated VaR values are then compared using three different testing …

small size DSGE model, a trivariate VAR model and the Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters. The forecast …), to ensure that the information available to the SPF was exactly the same as the data used to estimate the DSGE and VAR … interest rate by the SPF are significantly better than those from the DSGE model. The forecast quality of the VAR model turned …

small size DSGE model, a trivariate VAR model and the Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters. The forecast …), to ensure that the information available to the SPF was exactly the same as the data used to estimate the DSGE and VAR … interest rate by the SPF are significantly better than those from the DSGE model. The forecast quality of the VAR model turned …

The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single … single-equation MS models tend to perform slightly better than linear VAR models when no leading information is available … than linear VAR models. …

are vector autoregressive (VAR) models. It is shown that a small-scale static factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model tends to … improve upon the nowcasting performance of the VAR models when the model span and the nowcasting period stretch beyond a …

constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between leading indicators representing expectations, investments … causality tests. The VAR model is also used to derive the dynamic paths of adjustment of global chip sales in response to shocks … leading quality of the selected indicators. Finally, out-of-sample forecasts of global chip sales are generated from the VAR …

, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at … applied to a VAR model of the U.S. economy. Nous proposons des méthodes pour tester des hypothèses de non-causalité à … différents horizons, tel que défini dans Dufour et Renault (1998, Econometrica). Nous étudions le cas des modèles VAR en détail …