This paper exploits an observed business cycle asymmetry, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between output growth and an index for financial market conditions across expansionary and contractionary periods, to forecast monthly growth in industrial production. A bivariate...

We estimate the bad loan rate in Japan and Korea for 1973-1992 using data on defaults on notes issued by the corporate sector. This method exploits institutional features common in both countries which suggest a close linkage between default on notes and default on bank borrowing. Our main...