Minimalist economists stubbornly resist Charles Kindleberger's characterization of investor expectations in a financial bubble as "irrational." This paper seeks to resolve the controversy by imbedding Kindleberger's well-researched, impressionistic theory of financial crises into an expanded,...

Market productivity is often greater, and leisure and other household activities more enjoyable, when people perform them simultaneously. Beyond pointing out the positive externalities of synchronicity, economists have not attempted to identify exogenous determinants of timing. We develop a...

This paper exploits the new non-response files of the Panel Study of income Dynamics in order to study living arrangement transitions of elderly Americans. The focus of the paper is an estimate of the probability of household dissolution, i.e., the probabilities of transitions from living...

The question of the effects of race and sex discrimination laws on relative economic outcomes for blacks and women has been of interest at least since the Civil Rights and Equal Pay Acts passed in the 1960s. We present new evidence on the effects of these laws based on variation induced first by...

The founding of the Federal Reserve System in 1914 led to a substantial change in the behavior of nominal interest rates. We examine the timing of this change and the speed with which it was effected. We then use data on the term structure of interest rates to determine how expectations...

The supply/demand of a security in the market is an intertemporal, not a static, object and its dynamics is crucial in determining market participants' trading behavior. Previous studies on the optimal trading strategy to execute a given order focuses mostly on the static properties of the...

In this paper I explore the evolution of unionism in the 1970n and 1980s, when the post-oil shock world economy created a "crisis of unionism" throughout the western world. I try to explain why union representation of work forces fell in some countries but not in others and contrast union...

This paper examines retirement and related behavioral responses to policies that on average are actuarially neutral. Many conventional models predict that actuarially neutral policies will not affect retirement behavior. In contrast, our model allows those with high time preference rates to find...

Several analysts claim that firms have been using more flexible work arrangements in order to contain the costly adjustment of labor to changes in economic conditions. In particular, temporary help supply (THS) employment has increased dramatically in the last ten years. However, there is only...

The standard model of signaling used in open economy macroeconomics concentrates on building a reputation when a policymaker's `type' is unknown. Observing tough policy leads market participants to raise the probability that a policymaker is tough, and therefore to expect tough policy in the...