Extremes are unusual or rare events. However, when such events – for exampleearthquakes, tidal waves and market crashes - do take place, they typically causeenormous losses, both in terms of human lives and monetary value. For this reason,it is of critical importance to accurately model...

We consider the problem of model assessment by risk estimation. Variousapproaches to risk estimation are considered in a uni ed framework. This a discussion of various complexity dimensions and approaches to obtainingbounds on covering numbers is also presented.The second type of training sample...

Previous research implementing stratification on the propensity score has generally relied on using five strata, based on prior theoretical groundwork and minimal empirical evidence as to the suitability of quintiles to adequately reduce bias in all cases and across all sample sizes. This study...

We examine the properties of a method for fixing Libor rates that is based on transactions data and multi-day sampling windows. The use of a sampling window may mitigate problems caused by thin transaction volumes in unsecured wholesale term funding markets. Using two partial data sets of loan...

Are structural vector autoregressions (VARs) useful for discriminating between macro models? Recent assessments of VARs have shown that these statistical methods have adequate size properties. In other words, in simulation exercises, VARs will only infrequently reject the true data generating...