In this paper a three-country model based on intertemporal maximizing behavior is constructed in order to analyze the effects of oil price increases on welfare levels and trade balance positions. The model can also be used to assess the effects of oil price increases on the world interest rate,...

We show how to construct optimal policy projections in Ramses, the Riksbank's open-economy medium-sized DSGE model for forecasting and policy analysis. Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model indicates that they are relatively invariant to alternative policy assumptions and supports...

The paper argues that the reason real world fixed exchange rate regimes usually have finite bands instead of completely fixed exchange rates between realignments is that exchange rate bands, counter to the textbook result, give central banks some monetary independence, even with free...

Assume that an economy is in a state of Keynesian unemployment. Since production is demand-determined there are bootstraps (multiple) equilibria. Then, the more optimist agents are about the future the higher will be theur demand today and hence current production. In that limited sense optimism...

This paper incorporates international capital flows into a two-country, monetary-general-equilibrium model of asset prices with investment and production. We use the model to calculate theoretical covariances between investment, the current account, the exchange rate, and the terms of...

The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest...

The paper discusses the choice between inflation targeting and monetary targeting as a strategy for the Eurosystem, the actual strategy the Eurosystem announced in the fall of 1998, the framework for policy decisions appropriate for achieving the goals of the Eurosystem, the role of exchange...

This paper presents a new solution to the time-consistency problem that appears capable of enforcing ex ante policy in a variety of settings in which other enforcement mechanisms do not work. The solution involves formulating a law, institution, or agreement that specifies the optimal ex ante...

In a previous paper, "Trade in Risky Assets," I have analyzed the pattern of international trade in risky real assets between barter economies, relying on the Law of Comparative Advantage and using autarky asset price differences to predict the pattern of asset trade. In this paper the analysis...

The current account dynamics is examined for a small open economy which is subject to exogenous changes in its static terms of trade and in world interest rates. The model used is one with overlapping finite-lived generations, which we argue gives rise to a more reasonable saving behaviour than...