Using stocks from a wide range of industry sectors on the Australian Securities Exchange, this paper examines the conditional distribution of intra-day stock prices and predicts the direction of the next price change in an ordered-probit-GARCH framework that accounts for the discreteness of...

α (“Alpha”) has symbolic importance on the investments side of finance. That is, a fundamental pillar of modern finance theory is the risk-return relation, and traditionally alpha is taken to represent the degree of “mispricing” in asset returns. But, such an interpretation is not...