This paper revisits the relationships among macroeconomic variables and asset returns. Based on recent developments in econometrics, we categorize competing models of asset returns into different "Equivalence Predictive Power Classes" (EPPC). During the pre-crisis period (1975-2005), some models...

Based on Chinese city-level data from 1999 to 2012 and controlling for geological, environmental, and social diversity, this study suggests that credit plays a significant role in driving up house prices after the Great Recession, whereas property prices only influence bank lending before 2008....

We present cross-country evidence that a country's macroeconomic volatility, measured either by the standard deviation of output growth or the occurrence of trend-growth breaks, is significantly affected by the country's historical variables. In particular, countries with longer histories of...