Presented at the 3rd Rocky Mountain Economic Summit, Jackson Hole, Wyoming

Countries with very flexible institutions and labor market policies, like the U.S., experienced substantial increases in unemployment over the course of the Great Recession, while countries with relatively rigid institutions and strict labor market policies, like France, fared better. However,...

In 2010, statistical experiments based on components of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index showed a significant possibility of a U.S. recession over a 24-month period. Since then, the European sovereign debt crisis has aggravated international threats to the U.S. economy. Moreover,...

Nobody yet knows the ultimate footprint that the Great Recession will have on the nation. We do know that much of it depends on the choices that Americans make in response—everything from personal saving to labor force participation is in play. Ultimately, these choices will help determine how...

The financial crisis 2008-2009 and the European sovereign debt crisis have shown that stress on financial markets is important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Since financial stress is not directly observable but is presumably reflected in many financial market variables, it is...

Remarks at the University at Albany, Albany, New York.

Remarks at United States Military Academy at West Point, West Point, New York.