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. The authors also analyze the impact of inflation and unemployment on these subjective measures and find that both … contrast with other studies, however, they do not find that the effect of unemployment is significantly different from that of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998147
the late 1990s - despite low unemployment - chiefly because an unusually high markup allowed firms to increase wages … without raising prices. As the markup returns to normal, the recent unusually favorable unemployment -inflation trade-off can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490274
unemployment." …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005491059
This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United States and conducts an extensive empirical analysis that recapitulates and clarifies this literature using a consistent data set and methodology. The literature review and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498278
Hysteresis is central to long-run unemployment movements in many countries. This essay addresses two broad issues. The … NAIRU, and hence the long run behavior of unemployment, is independent of aggregate demand? The second broad issue is the … nature of hysteresis. Through what mechanisms do short-run unemployment movements influence the NAIRU? What determines the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498290
Paul Samuelson could not attend, yet he kindly forwarded commentary for distribution at the conference.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498294
The author's comments focus on how the lessons from recent research on the Phillips curve are helping him think about the influence of fluctuations in the prices of commodities, such as oil, on the outlook for inflation and the appropriate policy responses to such developments.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498295
It has been fifty years since A.W. Phillips published the famous article on inflation and unemployment that established … concepts in discussing the influence of demand growth on inflation, as well as the relationship between unemployment, wages and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498299
As with many important theories, the long run value of Phillips curve theories may lie in the new flames that are emerging from its dying embers.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498307
Historical experience suggests an important role for some deviation from the most restricted form of rational expectations in inflation dynamics, but also shows that other aspects of sluggish price adjustment – such as nominal rigidities, are important; and the available indicators of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498329